Executive Summary
High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), particularly H5N1 and similar strains, has rapidly evolved from a poultry-centric disease into a significant zoonotic threat with global pandemic potential. Recent detections of HPAI in both commercial poultry and mammalian livestock, including dairy cows, underscore the virus’s growing adaptability and capacity to cross species barriers. A robust, predictive risk model is urgently needed to assess and mitigate the risk of HPAI mutating into a form capable of sustained human-to-human transmission.
Background: The Rising Threat of HPAI Spillover
Historically, HPAI outbreaks were largely contained within poultry populations. However, emerging data from the U.S. and internationally indicate that the virus has infected mammals including sea lions, mink, foxes, cats, and cattle—many of which share greater physiological similarities to humans than birds.
HPAI Human Transmission Risk
Notably, the H5N1 virus has already infected a small number of humans, albeit with limited transmission. Each spillover event increases the risk of a mutation that could enable efficient human transmission, especially in agricultural environments where workers are in close contact with infected animals.
UC Davis and MOSIMTEC Partnership
The Western Institute for Food Safety & Security, a Program within the University of California, Davis School of Veterinary Medicine with funding from the USDA Southwest Regional Food Business Center, has partnered with MOSIMTEC LLC to develop a risk-based model to understand the spread of HPAI in dairy farms and study mitigation strategies to limit disease transmission.
Why a Zoonotic Disease Risk Model is Critical for HPAI
- Early Detection and Prevention
A data-driven risk model would integrate genetic sequencing, farm-level surveillance, and ecological data to detect early warning signs of viral evolution toward human transmissibility. This would allow public health agencies to implement targeted ecological and food chain biosecurity interventions before widespread transmission occurs. Key capabilities:- Real-time viral mutation tracking
- Predictive analytics for spillover events
- Biosecurity protocol optimization
- Informed Policy and Resource Allocation
Predictive disease modeling outputs guide resource prioritization—such as vaccine stockpiling, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) distribution, and testing—in high-risk regions or industries. Agricultural and health policy can be tailored to address the most vulnerable transmission pathways. - Cross-Sector Collaboration
A shared digital twin disease model facilitates communication and coordination between animal health, public health, food safety, and environmental sectors under the link-to-one-health. This enhances pandemic preparedness and streamlines decision-making in response to potential outbreaks. - Economic Stability
Mitigating a zoonotic pandemic before it emerges avoids billions in potential economic losses from disrupted food systems, trade restrictions, and healthcare costs. Proactive risk modeling supports continuity in poultry and dairy markets and reduces consumer panic, ensuring food system resilience during disease outbreaks. - Pandemic Preparedness
The COVID-19 pandemic illustrated the consequences of underestimating zoonotic threats. An HPAI risk model serves as a strategic asset for national and international pandemic readiness, potentially averting the next global health crisis.
AnyLogic Simulation: Dairy Farm HPAI Outbreak Modeling
The video below demonstrates MOSIMTEC’s agent-based simulation model for understanding the impact of HPAI on the economics of a closed-herd dairy farm.
Digital Twin Disease Modeling Features
Data-driven customization: Multiple table-based Excel inputs to customize farm parameters
- Population tracking: Models cows, heifers, and lactation stages
- Disease characteristics: Configurable HPAI transmission rates and mortality
- Economic impact analysis: Tracks milk production losses and recovery timelines
- Permanent damage assessment: Quantifies long-term herd productivity impacts
Video Description: Data-driven agent-based simulation showing HPAI outbreak progression in a dairy herd, including milk production impacts and recovery analysis using AnyLogic simulation software.
Frequently Asked Questions About HPAI Risk Modeling
Q: What is High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)?
A: HPAI is a highly contagious viral disease affecting birds and increasingly mammals, with H5N1 being the most concerning strain for pandemic potential.
Q: Can HPAI spread from dairy cows to humans?
A: Yes, there have been documented cases of HPAI transmission from infected cattle to farmworkers, though sustained human-to-human transmission has not occurred.
Q: How does predictive disease modeling prevent pandemics?
A: Risk models identify early warning signs of viral mutations and high-risk transmission pathways, enabling proactive interventions before widespread outbreaks.
Q: What is a digital twin disease model?
A: A digital twin is a virtual simulation that replicates real-world disease dynamics, allowing researchers to test mitigation strategies without real-world risk.
Take Action: HPAI Risk Assessment for Your Organization
The convergence of HPAI in poultry and cattle populations with sporadic human infections represents a critical inflection point. Without robust and adaptive risk modeling, organizations could be unprepared for a zoonotic leap with devastating consequences.
Investing in predictive disease modeling is both scientifically sound and a moral imperative.
Contact MOSIMTEC to learn how digital twin disease modeling can protect your agricultural operations and contrinbute to pandemic preparedness. This whitepaper paper was developed in collaboration with WIFSS.