Monte Carlo Simulation of Financial Models

Each MOSIMTEC modeling engagement results in a customized model for the client’s specific needs.  The client can further adjust model inputs to continue running analysis after the initial modeling engagement is complete.

Once a user provides a range of possible inputs, the model is easily launched from Excel.  In this demo, the model is run for 1000 replications.  In other words, the model roles the dice 1000 times on all the different input parameters to provide estimates of the overall outputs under various possible input combinations.

Once the model run is complete, results are loaded back into Excel for evaluation.  Key metrics, such as net present value and rate of return are presented in summary formats; showing the minimum, average and maximum values expected.  More importantly, these metrics can also be displayed in histogram formats.  A minimum observed value may appear to make an investment unattractive, but upon examining the histograms, the user can see that the vast majority of replications are positive.  In this particular demo model, there is a 93% chance that the investment achieves the desired rate of return.

Contact MOSIMTEC to learn more about developing models for your business.

MOSIMTEC’s core focus is assisting clients make better decisions through application of decision support tools. Our team has extensive experience working with leading computer simulation model software and solving complex issues for clients across various industries.